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Como
Sassuolo
Serie ALeague
ComoVSUpcoming
Sassuolo24 Oct 2026, 14:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
71%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
COM
1.52
SAS
0.95
Recent form adjustment
COM1.01×
SAS1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.52
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.95
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.61/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.38/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.17/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.08/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.48 / 1.33 (53 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 40 home games, 22 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42