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Valencia
Villarreal
La LigaLeague
ValenciaVSUpcoming
Villarreal24 Oct 2026, 17:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
69%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
VAL
1.06
VIL
1.31
Recent form adjustment
VAL0.96×
VIL1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.06
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.31
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.35/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.39/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.37/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.25/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.31 (71 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 42 home games, 43 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 17:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42