Back to Matches
Racing Santander
Espanyol
La LigaLeague
Racing SantanderVSUpcoming
Espanyol24 Oct 2026, 15:15Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
RAC
1.69
ESY
1.17
Recent form adjustment
RAC0.92×
ESY0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.69
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.17
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.94/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.61/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.08/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.44/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.31 (71 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.92
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 3 home games, 42 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:15
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42