Back to Matches
RB Leipzig
Elversberg
BundesligaLeague
RB LeipzigVSUpcoming
Elversberg24 Oct 2026, 14:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
RBL
1.17
ELV
1.15
Recent form adjustment
RBL1.06×
ELV0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.17
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.15
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 2.33/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.04/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.39/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.19/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.21 / 1.43 (43 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.06
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42