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FC Augsburg
FC Union Berlin
BundesligaLeague
FC AugsburgVSUpcoming
FC Union Berlin24 Oct 2026, 14:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
FCA
1.33
FCU
0.95
Recent form adjustment
FCA1.01×
FCU0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.33
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.95
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.45/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 2.00/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.03/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.41/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.21 / 1.43 (43 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 36 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42