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FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
BundesligaLeague
FSV Mainz 05VSUpcoming
Werder Bremen24 Oct 2026, 14:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
74%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
M05
1.22
SVW
1.41
Recent form adjustment
M051.01×
SVW1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.22
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.41
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.43/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.86/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.48/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.36/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.21 / 1.43 (43 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 37 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42