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Paderborn
Hamburger SV
BundesligaLeague
PaderbornVSUpcoming
Hamburger SV24 Oct 2026, 14:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
PAD
1.39
HSV
1.30
Recent form adjustment
PAD0.97×
HSV0.96×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.39
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.30
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.76/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.79/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.42/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.37/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.21 / 1.43 (43 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Sample size
- 20 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 14:30
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42