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Rayo Vallecano
Elche
La LigaLeague
Rayo VallecanoVSUpcoming
Elche24 Oct 2026, 13:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
71%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:14
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
RAY
1.47
ELC
0.99
Recent form adjustment
RAY0.99×
ELC1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.47
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.99
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.36/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.88/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.16/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.12/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.31 (71 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 23 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 13:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:14
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42