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Burton Albion
Leyton Orient
League OneLeague
Burton AlbionVSUpcoming
Leyton Orient24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:13
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
BRA
1.23
LEY
1.44
Recent form adjustment
BRA0.97×
LEY0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.23
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.44
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.33/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.41/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.44/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.39/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.48 / 1.38 (102 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 51 home games, 52 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:13
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41