Back to Matches
Notts County
Stockport County
League OneLeague
Notts CountyVSUpcoming
Stockport County24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:13
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
NOT
1.21
STO
1.05
Recent form adjustment
NOT0.97×
STO1.03×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.21
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.05
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.56/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.18/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.40/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.02/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.48 / 1.38 (102 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Sample size
- 53 home games, 53 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated11 Oct 2026, 14:13
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41