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Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
League TwoLeague
ChesterfieldVSUpcoming
Crewe Alexandra24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
70%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CST
1.23
CAX
1.20
Recent form adjustment
CST1.02×
CAX1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.23
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.20
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.66/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.08/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.04/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.14/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.49 / 1.01 (114 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 53 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41