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Exeter City
Fleetwood Town
League TwoLeague
Exeter CityVSUpcoming
Fleetwood Town24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
74%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
EXE
1.19
FLT
1.46
Recent form adjustment
EXE1.01×
FLT0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.19
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.46
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.28/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.38/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.23/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.22/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.49 / 1.01 (114 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 51 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41