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Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
League TwoLeague
Bristol RoversVSUpcoming
Swindon Town24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
BRR
1.28
SWI
1.53
Recent form adjustment
BRR0.96×
SWI0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.28
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.53
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.42/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.40/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.23/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.29/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.49 / 1.01 (114 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 51 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41