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Cheltenham Town
Newport County
League TwoLeague
Cheltenham TownVSUpcoming
Newport County24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
79%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CTT
1.59
NPT
1.31
Recent form adjustment
CTT0.98×
NPT1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.59
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.31
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.37/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.78/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.95/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.38/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.49 / 1.01 (114 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 51 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41