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Northampton Town
Colchester United
League TwoLeague
Northampton TownVSUpcoming
Colchester United24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
NHT
0.91
CLU
1.33
Recent form adjustment
NHT0.99×
CLU0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.91
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.33
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.03/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.35/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.09/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.26/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.49 / 1.01 (114 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 50 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41