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Willem II Tilburg
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden
EredivisieLeague
Willem II TilburgVSUpcoming
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden24 Oct 2026, 17:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Willem II
1.22
Cambuur
1.58
Recent form adjustment
Willem II0.95×
Cambuur1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.22
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.58
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.21/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.81/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.70/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.79/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.92 (67 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.95
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 3 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 17:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40