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FC Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
EredivisieLeague
FC UtrechtVSUpcoming
PEC Zwolle24 Oct 2026, 15:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Utrecht
1.80
Zwolle
1.10
Recent form adjustment
Utrecht0.94×
Zwolle0.92×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.80
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.10
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.68/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.94/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.39/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.66/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.70 / 1.92 (67 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.92
- Sample size
- 37 home games, 38 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40