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Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
Watford FC
ChampionshipLeague
Wolverhampton Wanderers FCVSUpcoming
Watford FC24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Wolverhampton
1.57
Watford
1.30
Recent form adjustment
Wolverhampton1.00×
Watford0.95×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.57
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.30
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.50/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.65/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.08/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.59/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.58 / 1.26 (106 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.95
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 50 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40