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West Ham United FC
Southampton FC
ChampionshipLeague
West Ham United FCVSUpcoming
Southampton FC24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
79%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
West Ham
1.87
Southampton
1.04
Recent form adjustment
West Ham1.05×
Southampton1.03×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.87
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.04
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.44/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.96/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.77/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.65/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.58 / 1.26 (106 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.05
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Sample size
- 43 home games, 42 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40