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Lincoln City FC
Burnley FC
ChampionshipLeague
Lincoln City FCVSUpcoming
Burnley FC24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
BTTS — No
No
70%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Lincoln City
0.47
Burnley
1.63
Recent form adjustment
Lincoln City0.98×
Burnley1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.47
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.63
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.21/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 0.62/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.47/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.37/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.58 / 1.26 (106 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy43%
Settled predictions1605
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40