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Cardiff City FC
Birmingham City FC
ChampionshipLeague
Cardiff City FCVSUpcoming
Birmingham City FC24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Cardiff
0.86
Birmingham
1.17
Recent form adjustment
Cardiff0.99×
Birmingham1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.86
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.17
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.14/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.19/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.23/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.19/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.58 / 1.26 (106 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 50 home games, 5 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40