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Charlton Athletic FC
Norwich City FC
ChampionshipLeague
Charlton Athletic FCVSUpcoming
Norwich City FC24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Charlton
1.14
Norwich
0.60
Recent form adjustment
Charlton0.97×
Norwich0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.14
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.60
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.19/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.55/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.92/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.83/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.58 / 1.26 (106 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 5 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40