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Arsenal FC
Everton FC
Premier LeagueLeague
Arsenal FCVSUpcoming
Everton FC24 Oct 2026, 15:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Arsenal
1.43
Everton
0.57
Recent form adjustment
Arsenal1.01×
Everton1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.43
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.57
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.96/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.13/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.87/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.82/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.26 (55 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 53 home games, 40 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 15:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40