Back to Matches
Aston Villa FC
Manchester City FC
Premier LeagueLeague
Aston Villa FCVSUpcoming
Manchester City FC24 Oct 2026, 12:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
79%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:34
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Aston Villa
1.46
Man City
1.49
Recent form adjustment
Aston Villa1.00×
Man City1.05×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.46
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.49
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.76/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.28/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.68/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.06/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.26 (55 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.05
- Sample size
- 47 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff24 Oct 2026, 12:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 21:34
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40