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Holywell
Penybont
Premier LeagueLeague
HolywellVSUpcoming
Penybont23 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
91%
HIGH confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:40
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
HOL
0.99
PyB
3.06
Recent form adjustment
HOL0.93×
PyB1.04×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.99
- Away expected goals (model)
- 3.06
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.44/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.30/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.76/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 2.62/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.78 / 1.56 (79 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.93
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Sample size
- 6 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:40
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45