Back to Matches
Trefelin
Flint Town United
Premier LeagueLeague
TrefelinVSUpcoming
Flint Town United23 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:40
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
TRE
1.49
FLI
1.41
Recent form adjustment
TRE0.97×
FLI0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.49
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.41
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.09/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 2.50/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.18/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.88/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.78 / 1.56 (79 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 5 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:40
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45