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Derry City
Dundalk
Premier DivisionLeague
Derry CityVSUpcoming
Dundalk23 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
72%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:40
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
DER
1.83
DFC
0.72
Recent form adjustment
DER1.01×
DFC0.96×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.83
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.72
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.80/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.57/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.01/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.09/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.47 (28 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:40
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45