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Galway United
St Patrick's
Premier DivisionLeague
Galway UnitedVSUpcoming
St Patrick's23 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GAL
0.71
PAT
0.93
Recent form adjustment
GAL1.00×
PAT1.05×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.71
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.93
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.07/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.03/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.38/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.94/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.47 (28 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.05
- Sample size
- 22 home games, 22 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45