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Darmstadt 98
St. Pauli
2. BundesligaLeague
Darmstadt 98VSUpcoming
St. Pauli23 Oct 2026, 17:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:45
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SVD
1.41
PAU
0.85
Recent form adjustment
SVD0.98×
PAU1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.41
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.85
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.64/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.53/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.98/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.23/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.75 / 1.41 (41 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 36 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 17:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:45