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Almere City
Roda JC Kerkrade
Eerste DivisieLeague
Almere CityVSUpcoming
Roda JC Kerkrade23 Oct 2026, 19:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ALM
1.55
ROD
0.72
Recent form adjustment
ALM1.04×
ROD1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.55
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.72
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.69/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.79/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.13/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.84/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.03 / 1.32 (78 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 23 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44