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De Graafschap
RKC Waalwijk
Eerste DivisieLeague
De GraafschapVSUpcoming
RKC Waalwijk23 Oct 2026, 19:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
80%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GRA
2.00
RKC
0.99
Recent form adjustment
GRA1.01×
RKC0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 2.00
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.99
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 2.25/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.80/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.07/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.23/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.03 / 1.32 (78 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 24 home games, 4 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44