Back to Matches
TOP Oss
Jong Ajax
Eerste DivisieLeague
TOP OssVSUpcoming
Jong Ajax23 Oct 2026, 19:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
73%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
OSS
1.57
JAJ
1.04
Recent form adjustment
OSS1.04×
JAJ0.94×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.57
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.04
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.56/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.97/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.02/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.43/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.03 / 1.32 (78 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.94
- Sample size
- 24 home games, 23 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44