Back to Matches
Vitesse
FC Emmen
Eerste DivisieLeague
VitesseVSUpcoming
FC Emmen23 Oct 2026, 19:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:44
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
78%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
VIT
1.08
EMM
1.80
Recent form adjustment
VIT0.98×
EMM1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.08
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.80
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.51/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.49/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.39/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.66/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.03 / 1.32 (78 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 23 home games, 22 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:44