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Elfsborg
Malmö FF
AllsvenskanLeague
ElfsborgVSUpcoming
Malmö FF23 Oct 2026, 18:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ELF
1.44
MAL
1.36
Recent form adjustment
ELF1.02×
MAL1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.44
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.36
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.85/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.23/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.38/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.32/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.62 / 1.33 (179 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 35 home games, 34 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 18:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43