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Vitória Guimarães
Marítimo
Liga PortugalLeague
Vitória GuimarãesVSUpcoming
Marítimo23 Oct 2026, 20:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
VSC
1.68
CSM
1.00
Recent form adjustment
VSC0.99×
CSM0.97×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.68
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.00
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.48/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.51/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.35/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.10/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.32 / 1.42 (63 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Sample size
- 38 home games, 4 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 20:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42