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Torino
Monza
Serie ALeague
TorinoVSUpcoming
Monza23 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
70%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
TOR
1.55
MON
0.87
Recent form adjustment
TOR0.98×
MON0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.55
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.87
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.16/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.97/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.96/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.29/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.45 / 1.40 (50 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 40 home games, 22 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42