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Deportivo Alavés
Málaga
La LigaLeague
Deportivo AlavésVSUpcoming
Málaga23 Oct 2026, 20:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
68%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
ALA
1.30
MLA
0.69
Recent form adjustment
ALA1.00×
MLA0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.30
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.69
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.20/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.84/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.85/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.10/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.71 / 1.33 (68 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 42 home games, 4 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 20:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42