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Bolton Wanderers FC
Middlesbrough FC
ChampionshipLeague
Bolton Wanderers FCVSUpcoming
Middlesbrough FC23 Oct 2026, 20:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:40
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
75%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Bolton
1.28
Middlesbrough
1.42
Recent form adjustment
Bolton0.99×
Middlesbrough1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.28
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.42
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.45/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.44/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.41/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.25/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.61 / 1.26 (99 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 50 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff23 Oct 2026, 20:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:40