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FC Bayern München
Arsenal FCCross-league comparison uncertain
UEFA Champions Leaguecup
FC Bayern MünchenVSUpcoming
Arsenal FC21 Oct 2026, 20:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
This is a cup/international fixture. The two teams may come from different domestic leagues, and this competition’s own history is still thin, so cross-team comparisons here are less reliable than a same-league match-up. It may also be an early qualifying round or played at a neutral venue — treat this prediction with extra caution.
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
72%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Bayern
1.23
Arsenal
1.30
Recent form adjustment
Bayern1.05×
Arsenal1.01×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.23
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.30
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 2.47/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.03/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.68/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.96/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.18 / 1.25 (18 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.05
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Sample size
- 14 home games, 54 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff21 Oct 2026, 20:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41