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FC Internazionale Milano
FK Shakhtar DonetskCross-league comparison uncertain
UEFA Champions Leaguecup
FC Internazionale MilanoVSUpcoming
FK Shakhtar Donetsk21 Oct 2026, 20:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
This is a cup/international fixture. The two teams may come from different domestic leagues, and this competition’s own history is still thin, so cross-team comparisons here are less reliable than a same-league match-up. It may also be an early qualifying round or played at a neutral venue — treat this prediction with extra caution.
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
76%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
Inter
1.89
Shaktar
0.86
Recent form adjustment
Inter0.96×
Shaktar0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.89
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.86
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.99/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 2.15/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.33/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.83/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 2.18 / 1.25 (18 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.96
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 11 home games, 8 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff21 Oct 2026, 20:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41