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Gillingham
Port Vale
League TwoLeague
GillinghamVSUpcoming
Port Vale20 Oct 2026, 20:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
67%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
GLG
1.13
PTV
1.19
Recent form adjustment
GLG1.01×
PTV0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.13
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.19
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.19/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.45/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.01/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.16/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 0.96 (104 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.01
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 51 home games, 50 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 20:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41