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AFC Wimbledon
Mansfield Town
League OneLeague
AFC WimbledonVSUpcoming
Mansfield Town20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
68%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:39
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
AWM
1.21
MAN
0.79
Recent form adjustment
AWM1.00×
MAN0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.21
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.79
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.25/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.45/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.16/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.94/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.50 / 1.36 (92 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 52 home games, 50 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:39
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41