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Doncaster Rovers
Stockport County
League OneLeague
Doncaster RoversVSUpcoming
Stockport County20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
69%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
DNR
1.11
STO
1.27
Recent form adjustment
DNR1.00×
STO1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.11
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.27
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.40/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.18/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.39/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.22/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.50 / 1.36 (92 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 49 home games, 53 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41