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Notts County
Sheffield Wednesday
League OneLeague
Notts CountyVSUpcoming
Sheffield Wednesday20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
72%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
NOT
1.33
SHF
1.22
Recent form adjustment
NOT0.97×
SHF1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.33
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.22
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.56/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.31/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.60/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.01/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.50 / 1.36 (92 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.97
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 53 home games, 3 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41