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Stevenage
Plymouth Argyle
League OneLeague
StevenageVSUpcoming
Plymouth Argyle20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
69%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
STV
1.13
PLA
1.28
Recent form adjustment
STV1.02×
PLA1.04×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.13
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.28
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.23/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.35/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.78/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.94/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.50 / 1.36 (92 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.04
- Sample size
- 50 home games, 28 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41