Back to Matches
Chesterfield
Colchester United
League TwoLeague
ChesterfieldVSUpcoming
Colchester United20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
77%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
CST
1.51
CLU
1.28
Recent form adjustment
CST1.03×
CLU0.99×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.51
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.28
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.67/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.36/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.11/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.13/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 0.96 (104 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.03
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Sample size
- 53 home games, 50 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41