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Exeter City
Crewe Alexandra
League TwoLeague
Exeter CityVSUpcoming
Crewe Alexandra20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:41
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
65%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
EXE
0.90
CAX
1.33
Recent form adjustment
EXE1.00×
CAX1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.90
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.33
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.28/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.08/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.03/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.21/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.54 / 0.96 (104 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 51 home games, 51 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:41