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Waterford United
Galway United
Premier DivisionLeague
Waterford UnitedVSUpcoming
Galway United19 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:53
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
71%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
WAT
0.97
GAL
0.89
Recent form adjustment
WAT1.00×
GAL1.00×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.97
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.89
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.41/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.07/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.09/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.21/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.55 / 1.47 (28 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.00
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 21 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff19 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:53