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Degerfors
Kalmar
AllsvenskanLeague
DegerforsVSUpcoming
Kalmar19 Oct 2026, 18:00Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:43
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
73%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
DEG
0.84
KAL
0.98
Recent form adjustment
DEG0.98×
KAL0.93×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.84
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.98
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 0.84/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.64/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.99/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.41/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.62 / 1.33 (179 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.93
- Sample size
- 26 home games, 20 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff19 Oct 2026, 18:00
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:43