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Parma
Torino
Serie ALeague
ParmaVSUpcoming
Torino19 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:52
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
PRM
1.20
TOR
1.05
Recent form adjustment
PRM0.99×
TOR0.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 1.20
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.05
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.11/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.57/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.09/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.37/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.45 / 1.40 (50 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 41 home games, 41 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff19 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:52